Development of MVMD-EO-LSTM Model for a Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction

Abstract

The accuracy and stability of short-term photovoltaic (PV) power prediction is crucial for power planning and dispatching in a grid system. For this reason, the multi-resolution variational modal decomposition (MVMD) method is proposed to achieve multi-scale input features mining for short-term PV power prediction. Here, the MVMD combined with Spearman extracts correlation features of the weather data. An equilibrium optimizer (EO) is integrated with MVMD to achieve optimal values of the long short-term memory (LSTM) parameters. Firstly, the correlation of input features is determined and selected by Spearman. The MVMD model is used to mine the high correlation features of solar radiation and conduct cross-correlation analysis to extract input feature components. Secondly, the similar weather days of the sample set are classified to ensure a good adaptability in different weather situations. Finally, the high correlation features are introduced into the photovoltaic power prediction model of EO optimized LSTM. Performance analysis using actual output power data from a PV plant shows that the proposed MVMD feature extraction method can effectively mine correlation features to achieve an optimized dataset under different seasons. Compared with the gray wolf and particle swarm optimization algorithms, the proposed model has a better optimization performance in a low discrimination of input feature decomposition components and low correlation with output power.

Keywords

• solar energy
• short-term PV power forecast
• multiresolution variational modal decomposition (MVMD)
• feature extraction
• equilibrium optimizer (EO)
• long short-term memory (LSTM)