Managed retreat and experimentation: realising opportunity in the Ōtautahi Christchurch residential red zone, Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract

Managed retreat is becoming a prominent issue both nationally and internationally. This is due both to the threat of rising sea levels and the growing incidence of extreme weather events, but also reflects the increasing propensity for placing human assets in harm's way. We analyse how this observation plays out in Aotearoa, and offer a simple model, informed by our intergenerational perspective and mātauranga Māori. This model has three features: retreat, relocation, and re-imagining. It enables us to explore the capacity for positive outcomes to further lower long-term environmental and social risks. We apply the model to the Ōtākaro Avon river corridor in Ōtautahi Christchurch, formerly known as the residential red zone, created during the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010-13. We discuss what can be learned from the decade-long history of adaptation in the corridor as an exemplar for emerging areas of managed retreat elsewhere. By means of a thought experiment, we explore the potential of the area for provision of affordable, climate-resilient housing.

Keywords

• Managed retreat
• intergenerational
• Ōtautahi Christchurch
• housing
• experimentation
• Canterbury earthquake sequence