An efficient analytical approach for forecasting the peak power of PV panels working in outdoor conditions based on explicit model

Abstract

In this paper, a new analytical approach based on an explicit model with one shape parameter has been proposed to forecast the peak power of the photovoltaic modules (PV) under varying operating conditions. A new analytical model of shape parameter has been developed according the relationship between the parameters of the explicit model and those of the single diode model (SDM). Furthermore, a novel open circuit voltage model as a function of solar irradiation and PV module temperature has been proposed. Temporal variations of PV module temperature and solar irradiation during one reference day have been used to extract the explicit model parameters and then to forecast the peak power for all other days. The proposed method is validated using measured data of different PV module technologies operating outdoor recorded by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The results have shown a good agreement between the experimental and the optimized data of the I-V characteristics and the maximum power point for a reference day and the normalized error has not exceed 2.9%. Moreover, the predicted values of maximum power point in two other arbitrary days have a good agreement with experimental ones, and the normalized error has not exceeded 3.6%.

Keywords

• PV module
• Explicit model
• Single diode model
• PV module temperature
• Solar irradiance
• Real-time prediction