Classification system of risks of nature-use activities in Arctic coastal eco-socio-economic systems

Abstract

The subject of the research article is the risks of natural and technogenic origin produced in the process of nature-use activities in the coastal eco-socio-economic system of the Russian Arctic in the context of global climate change and constantly increasing anthropogenic impact. The purpose of the study is to justify and develop a classification system of risks of Arctic coastal nature-use activities, sources and factors of risk production and possible relationships between their structural elements, which makes it possible to use system analysis in building models of risks of nature-use activities in the Russian Arctic. The paper defines the risk with the developed step-by-step structuring system (risk-source, risk-factor, riskobject) as a process of causing damages, which has the probability of being realized. Classification features and specific types of structural risk elements are shown, as well as an expert assessment of these relationships in the riskfactor – risk-source and risk-object – risk-factor matrices in the form of a matrix analysis of risks of Arctic nature-use activities. The article was written as part of the implementation of an initiative scientific project № 124041100052-8.