Drought Variability in Agadir’s Region (Southern Morocco) – Recent and Future Trends

Abstract

The area of Agadir, which is situated on Morocco's southern Atlantic coast, is characterized by an arid climate, and has been strongly impacted by climate change. The purpose of this research is to assess observed and modeled drought variability in time, on the basis of rainfall time series for the periods 1973–2020, and 2022 – 2099 by use of SPI, short for Standardized Precipitation Index. Findings from the SPI analysis show that the years from 1981 to 1986 were the driest as per the instrumental record. Future SPI projections indicate that the area under study will face several prolonged drought and wet periods between 2022 and 2099. The longest drought will take place from 2090 to 2093. Analysis of the relationship between rainfall in Agadir and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is also studied especially for the winter months. The results of the study will provide a basis for drought surveillance and hydro-meteorological studies, in addition to initiating the desired managment of environment in this area.

Keywords

• drought
• morocco
• spi
• nao
• agadir