An Air Pollutant Emission Analysis of Brazilian Electricity Production Projections and Other Countries

Abstract

In the face of the population’s growing awareness about environmental degradation, air pollutant emissions from electricity production become a very relevant issue. Therefore, the present work aims to evaluate the greenhouse gases (GHG), NOx and SO2 emissions in the Brazilian electricity production, using the expected capacity expansion from Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan-2027, the current installed capacity of power generation and the electrical load factor. This study was based on data provided by official institutions that are responsible for the electricity sector as well as academic studies of the area. In order to obtain a better analysis of the most likely air pollutant emission values bounds, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed. In addition, the 2017 energy production emissions from Brazil, France, China, and the USA were evaluated and compared. The results indicate that non-renewable sources of energy have a negative environmental impact. In general, the emissions of CO2-eq and NOx per MWh are increasing according to Brazilian energy generation projections, but when compared with global indicator Brazil has an affordable electricity mix in terms of air pollutant emissions.

Keywords

• pollutant emissions
• energy projections
• Monte Carlo simulation