Estimating Coffee Plant Yield Based on Multispectral Images and Machine Learning Models

Abstract

The coffee plant is one of the main crops grown in Brazil. However, strategies to estimate its yield are questionable given the characteristics of this crop; in this context, robust techniques, such as those based on machine learning, may be an alternative. Thus, the aim of the present study was to estimate the yield of a coffee crop using multispectral images and machine learning algorithms. Yield data from a same study area in 2017, 2018 and 2019, Sentinel 2 images, Random Forest (RF) algorithms, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Neural Network (NN) and Linear Regression (LR) were used. Statistical analysis was performed to assess the absolute Pearson correlation and coefficient of determination values. The Sentinel 2 satellite images proved to be favorable in estimating coffee yield. Despite the low spatial resolution in estimating agricultural variables below the canopy, the presence of specific bands such as the red edge, mid infrared and the derived vegetation indices, act as a countermeasure. The results show that the blue band and green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) exhibit greater correlation with yield. The NN algorithm performed best and was capable of estimating yield with 23% RMSE, 20% MAPE and R² 0.82 using 85% of the training and 15% of the validation data of the algorithm. The NN algorithm was also more accurate (27% RMSE) in predicting yield.

Keywords

• coffee crop
• yield
• prediction models
• spatial distribution of yield