FINANCEMENT DES DEFICITS BUDGETAIRES PAR EMPRUNT ET LEURS EFFETS SUR LA SPHERE REELLE DES ECONOMIES DE LA CEDEAO

Abstract

The main of this paper is to study the room for maneuver of ECOWAS States in terms of fiscal policy under external debt in the face of persistent budgetary imbalances. It seeks to assess the macroeconomic effects of budget deficits conditioned by external debt over the 2000-2016 period. To do this, we propose a simple threshold effects model with fixed effects relating the budget deficit (conditioned by the external debt ratio) and real GDP growth. The model does not reject the hypothesis of a Keynesian effect of deficits on real GDP growth up to an external debt ratio of 65.42% of GDP. Beyond this rate, there is a strong and positive marginal effect of the anti-Keynesian type as defined by Perotti (1999). At this optimal rate, we realize that over the study period considered, only The Gambia and Ghana which exceeded this rate with an average rate of external debt on GDP of 79.18% of GDP for The Gambia and 80, 52% GDP for Ghana.

Keywords

• budget deficits, external debt, effects of non-linearity, real gdp growth, ecowas.