BMC Public Health (Sep 2024)

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for older adults with social isolation in China

  • Qiugui Li,
  • Wenjiao Cen,
  • Tao Yang,
  • Shengru Tao

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20142-3
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 24, no. 1
pp. 1 – 15

Abstract

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Abstract Background Older adults are vulnerable to social isolation due to declining physical and cognitive function, decreased interpersonal interactions, and reduced outdoor activities after retirement. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model to assess the risk of social isolation among older adults in China. Methods Using data from the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The study cohort was randomly divided into training and validation groups in a 70:30 ratio. We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis with tenfold cross-validation to identify optimal predictive factors and examined the correlates of social isolation using logistic regression. A nomogram was constructed for the predictive model, and its accuracy was assessed using calibration curves. The predictive performance of the model was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results From the 2011 CHARLS database, 4,747 older adults were included in the final analysis, of whom 1,654 (34.8%) experienced social isolation. Multifactorial logistic regression identified educational level, marital status, gender, physical activity, physical self -maintenance ability, and number of children as predictive factors for social isolation. The predictive model achieved an AUC of 0.739 (95%CI = 0.722–0.756) in the training set and 0.708 (95%CI = 0.681–0.735) in the validation set. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded P values of 0.111 and 0.324, respectively (both P > 0.05), indicating significant agreement between the nomogram and observed outcomes. The nomogram showed excellent predictive ability according to ROC and DCA. Conclusions The predictive model developed to assess the risk of social isolation in the Chinese older adults shows promising utility for early screening and intervention by clinical healthcare professionals.

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