Accurate identification and trajectory simulation of urban shrinkage in resource-based cities

Abstract

[Objective] In order to provide a theoretical basis for the transformation and development of resource-based cities, the contraction states of different types of resource-based cities are revealed and their contraction tracks are simulated. [Methods] Taking 116 prefecture-level resource-based cities in China as the research object, the multi-dimensional shrinkage identification method was used to measure the shrinkage intensity of different types of cities, fit the shrinkage process, and analyze the evolution characteristics. [Results] (1) From 2000 to 2020, 56 resource-based cities in China will experience population contraction (48.28%), 42 will experience economic contraction (36.21%), and 26 of them will experience double population and economic contraction (22.41%). (2) In terms of development stage, the proportion of shrinkage in declining, mature and growing cities is higher, 65.22%, 63.49% and 60.00%, respectively. From the perspective of resource type, the shrinkage ratio of forestry, oil and gas and comprehensive resource-based cities is higher, and the shrinkage of forestry cities is particularly significant, 80% of cities have double shrinkage of population and economy. (3) Resource-based shrinking cities are mainly distributed in the north of Dandong and Panzhihua Line, and clustered in the northeast and Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Mongolia, and other regions. (4) There is a certain regularity in the evolution trajectory of resource-based shrinking cities, which can be divided into two categories: smart contraction and typical contraction, and the typical contraction is further subdivided into contraction appearance, contraction advancement and contraction significance. The number of cities whose trajectory type is contraction propulsion is the largest, accounting for 33.33%. The trajectory types of contraction were mainly concentrated in two types of cities, namely regeneration type (63%) and decline type (47%). [Conclusion] The dual-dimension measurement of population and economy can identify the contraction of resource-based cities more comprehensively, and the simulation and classification of contraction trajectories of different types of resource-based cities can provide references for the transformation and development of resource-based cities.

Keywords

• urban shrinkage|shrinkage identification|nonlinear fitting|shrinkage trajectory|urban development index|resource-based cities|china