Power System Reliability Evaluation Based on Chronological Booth–Baleriaux Method

Abstract

The complexity of modern power systems is increasing because of the development of various intermittent generators. In practical reliability evaluations, it is essential to include both the failure of conventional generators and the output characteristics of renewable energy; the use of the latter has increased rapidly. The weather-dependent nature of renewable energy output, which is inexplicable in the load duration curve method, highlights the need for further study of the methods of a reliability evaluation that can consider temporal characteristics. This paper proposes a deterministic reliability evaluation method based on the Booth–Baleriaux method, chronologically extended to address the preventative maintenance schedule of a generator and the characteristics of renewable energy. The proposed method was applied to an IEEE reliability test system for performance verification, and a reliability evaluation was performed considering various chronological patterns. The proposed method was also applied to determine the adequate capacity reserve that should be installed in a Korean power system. The proposed method is stable, and it produced robust results.

Keywords

• power system reliability
• reliability evaluation
• convolution method
• chronological reliability
• loss of load probability
• deterministic method