Assessment of Inflation Schemes on Parameter Estimation and Their Application in ENSO Prediction in an OSSE Framework

Abstract

The ensemble Kalman filter is often used in parameter estimation, which plays an essential role in reducing model errors. However, filter divergence is often encountered in an estimation process, resulting in the convergence of parameters to the improper value and finally in parameter estimation failure. To alleviate this degeneration, various covariance inflation schemes have been proposed. In this study, I examined six currently used inflation schemes: fixed inflation, conditional covariance inflation, modified estimated parameter ensemble spread, relaxation-to-prior perturbations, relaxation-to-prior spread, and new conditional covariance inflation. The six schemes were thoroughly explored using the Zebiak–Cane model and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter in the observing system simulation experiment framework. Emphasis was placed on the comparison of these schemes when it came to estimating single and multiple parameters in terms of oceanic analyses and resultant El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. The results showed that the new conditional covariance inflation scheme had the best results in terms of the estimated parameters, resultant state analyses, and ENSO predictions. In addition, the results suggested that better parameter estimation yields better state simulations, resulting in improved predictions. Overall, this study provides viable information for selecting inflation schemes for parameter estimation, offering theoretical guidance for constructing operational assimilation systems.

Keywords

• inflation schemes
• parameter estimation
• ENSO prediction
• local ensemble transform Kalman filter
• Zebiak–Cane model