Dynamical systems approaches to the study of climate with applications to 2022 extreme weather events***

Abstract

Between 1980 and 2020, extreme weather and climate change events have caused, in Europe, up to 520 billion euros in economic losses, according to a 2022 report released by the European Environment Agency. Many weather extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, tropical cyclones and cold spells will change in frequency and/or intensity due to the ongoing anthropogenic climate change, driving our planet to unprecedented threats. From a theoretical point of view, such extreme events are difficult to characterize because they are rare and they do occur at specific spatiotemporal scales of the dynamics, not necessarily the largest or the smallest of the climate system. Their study requires a framework capable of tracking their probability of occurrence, predictability and persistence. In this manuscript I will describe how dynamical systems theory helps in building numerical and theoretical tools for weather extreme events, using recurrences of patterns termed analogues. These tools can be used to study whether climate change do already affect the dynamics of extremes. Three recent examples will be analysed in details, namely the Argentinian heatwave, the Greek cold spell and the windstorm Malik, all occurred in January 2022.