The economic potential of the Republic of Belarus after joining the SCO: Advantages and opportunities

Abstract

In the era of globalization, integration groupings have become an important tool for the development of many countries in the world economy. They contribute to the formation of close economic ties and coordination of foreign trade between the participants, which in turn has a favorable effect on the development of the national economy of the country. Participation in integration associations is of great importance for the development of Belarus’ economy and increasing its role in the international arena. Membership in the SCO opens up new prospects for the country and provides an opportunity to expand cooperation with other countries of the Asian region. Once Belarus becomes a full-fledged member of the association, the country will have new ways to develop its potential in various areas, including the economy, logistics, transport, security, culture, education, healthcare, tourism, industrial and agricultural sector, science, as well as experience in international multilateral cooperation. The article is devoted to the topic of assessing the potential of joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization integration association of the Republic of Belarus. In order to assess the prospects of economic cooperation more accurately, the authors conducted an econometric analysis using a modified version of the traditional gravity model of Belarus’ foreign trade with the member countries. As a result, the authors have identified the most significant factors influencing the volume of trade with the member countries. By analyzing the ratio of calculated indicators to the actual level of exports and imports, the authors made a conclusion about the level of realization of trade potential with the SCO countries. As a consequence, the authors proposed possible ways to implement trade by analyzing the commodity structure of foreign trade flows of the Republic of Belarus with the members of the integration association.

Keywords

• export potential
• foreign trade activity
• gravity model
• shanghai cooperation organization
• republic of belarus
• gross domestic product
• purchasing power parity