Advance Market Commitments (AMC) model application for Colombian purchase strategy of COVID-19 vaccines

Abstract

This research estimated the optimal size and composition of the portfolio, and its benefit–cost ratio, of COVID-19 vaccines that Colombia should negotiate as a price-taking country. The Advance Market Commitments (AMC) mathematical model was applied using the parameters from the Colombian context and from a literature review. The findings indicate that the optimal portfolio of Colombia should include 13 vaccines, mainly from two platforms: i) RNA and ii) inactivated virus. The benefit–cost ratio was always greater than one in the baseline scenario and after performing many sensitivity analyses on parameters such as the percentage of the population at risk, the price per treatment, and the herd immunity threshold, among others. In a context of high uncertainty, the best decision – with high benefit – is to anticipate the negotiation processes with the providers of COVID-19 vaccines, which will generate positive economic and health impacts.

Keywords

• COVID-19 vaccines
• Benefit–cost analysis
• Uncertainty
• Mathematical model