Antarctic 20th Century Accumulation Changes Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations

Abstract

The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied to Antarctica driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European Reanalysis data ERA-40 for the period 1958–1998. Simulations over 4 decades, carried out with a horizontal resolution of 50 km, deliver a realistic simulation of the Antarctic atmospheric circulation, synoptic-scale pressure systems, and the spatial distribution of precipitation minus sublimation (P-E) structures. The simulated P-E pattern is in qualitative agreement with glaciological estimates. The estimated (P-E) trends demonstrate surfacemass accumulation increase at the West Antarctic coasts and reductions in parts of East Antarctica. The influence of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on the near-surface climate and the surface mass accumulation over Antarctica have been investigated on the basis of ERA-40 data and HIRHAM simulations. It is shown that the regional accumulation changes are largely driven by changes in the transient activity around the Antarctic coasts due to the varying AAO phases. During positive AAO, more transient pressure systems travelling towards the continent, and Western Antarctica and parts of South-Eastern Antarctica gain more precipitation and mass. Over central Antarctica the prevailing anticyclone causes a strengthening of polar desertification connected with a reduced surface mass balance in the northern part of East Antarctica.