A Method of Analyzing the Residual Values of Low-Emission Vehicles Based on a Selected Expert Method Taking into Account Stochastic Operational Parameters

Abstract

Increasing the market share of low-emission vehicles in relation to individual mobility is one of the main postulates of modern transport policy. In the discussion on low-emission and the new structure of the car fleet, the role of new vehicles is emphasized above all, ignoring the importance of the secondary market. In recent years, both in Poland and in other European Union countries, there has been a noticeable dynamic development of electromobility implementation processes in urban areas, the initial effect of which is increasing market accessibility to commercial vehicles with electric EV/BEV, hybrid HEV/PHEV and fuel cell powered FCEV. As in the case of vehicles powered by conventional ICEV fuels, also in relation to those defined as low-emission, their residual value is lost along with the operational process. Information on this variable is important both for the owner of a newly purchased vehicle, which after the period of its operation will decide to sell it as well as to the future buyer. The scientific aim of the study is to analyze the residual values of selected vehicle models from the primary and secondary market, with particular emphasis on stochastic operational phenomena. The subject of the research is to obtain extensive knowledge on the achieved changes in the residual values of low-emission vehicles in relation to ICEVs. For this purpose, a comparative analysis of the commercial program, data approximated from auction portals and own numerical modeling tool based on a neural network was performed. The research sample included, among others, selected models of passenger cars, the purchase offer of which included the choice of a drive unit powered by conventional and low-emission fuels. The use of this method allowed to answer the question whether low-emission vehicles are characterized by a greater or lesser loss of value in relation to conventionally powered vehicles ICEV.

Keywords

• low-emission
• electromobility
• residual value
• exploitation factors
• numerical modeling
• development policy