NATO Cohesion in Global Power Competition: A Quantitative Cluster Analysis

Abstract

This study examines NATO's cohesion amid global power competition, focusing on the alliance's internal and external determinants from 2002 to 2023. Using cluster analysis, it evaluates 19 variables across political, military, security, and economic factors to identify divergences among traditional and new member states. The findings reveal a heterogeneous alliance influenced by economic disparities, divergent threat perceptions, and unequal military spending. However, external threats, particularly Russia's aggression, have fostered temporary solidarity. The study highlights the strategic implications of NATO's cohesion for its deterrence and defence roles, emphasizing the need for equitable burden-sharing and synchronized policies to mitigate fragmentation. The research offers policy recommendations to strengthen NATO’s relevance and adaptability in a contested global landscape.

Keywords

• nato; alliance cohesion; global power competition; cluster analysis; burden sharing; military expenditure; security threats.