Unveiling the nexus: exploring the influence of terrorism on energy trade in China and the Belt and Road countries

Abstract

Abstract An examination of the scale of energy trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road, as well as the terrorist activities in these countries from 2008 to 2019, has been conducted in this study. The spatial and temporal evolution law is revealed through the use of exploratory spatial data analysis. The spatial Durbin model is employed to investigate the impacts and spatial spillover effects of terrorist activities along the Belt and Road on China’s energy trade with these countries. The findings of the study are as follows: Spatial clustering is exhibited by the energy scale of China’s imports and exports with countries along the routes and terrorist activities along the routes, with energy imports concentrated in West Asia and North Africa, energy exports concentrated in Southeast Asia, and terrorist activities concentrated in West Asia and North Africa, South Asia, and Central Asia. A negative effect on the scale of China’s energy imports from the countries along the route is exerted by the terrorism index, and a positive spatial spillover effect is present. The number of terrorist activities and deaths have a negative effect on the scale of China’s energy imports from the countries along the route, but there is no spatial spillover effect. The terrorism index does not affect the scale of energy exports from China to countries along the route, but there is a negative spatial spillover effect. There are differences in the spatial spillover effects of the number of terrorist activities and deaths on the scale of China’s energy exports. The level of economic development, liner transportation convenience, and energy exports dependence of the countries along the route also significantly influence China’s energy trade with these countries.