Achieving an 80% carbon-free electricity system in China by 2035
Nikit Abhyankar,
Jiang Lin,
Fritz Kahrl,
Shengfei Yin,
Umed Paliwal,
Xu Liu,
Nina Khanna,
Qian Luo,
David Wooley,
Mike O’Boyle,
Olivia Ashmoore,
Robbie Orvis,
Michelle Solomon,
Amol Phadke
Affiliations
Nikit Abhyankar
Electricity Market and Policy Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Jiang Lin
Electricity Market and Policy Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA; Corresponding author
Fritz Kahrl
Electricity Market and Policy Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Shengfei Yin
Electricity Market and Policy Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Umed Paliwal
Electricity Market and Policy Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Xu Liu
Electricity Market and Policy Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA; National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Nina Khanna
Electricity Market and Policy Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Qian Luo
Electricity Market and Policy Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
David Wooley
UC Berkeley, Goldman School of Public Policy, Center for Environmental Public Policy, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Mike O’Boyle
Energy Innovation Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology LLC, San Francisco, CA 94111, USA
Olivia Ashmoore
Energy Innovation Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology LLC, San Francisco, CA 94111, USA
Robbie Orvis
Energy Innovation Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology LLC, San Francisco, CA 94111, USA
Michelle Solomon
Energy Innovation Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology LLC, San Francisco, CA 94111, USA
Amol Phadke
Electricity Market and Policy Department, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Summary: Dramatic reductions in solar, wind, and battery storage costs create new opportunities to reduce emissions and costs in China’s electricity sector, beyond current policy goals. This study examines the cost, reliability, emissions, public health, and employment implications of increasing the share of non-fossil fuel (“carbon free”) electricity generation in China to 80% by 2035. The analysis uses state-of-the-art modeling with high resolution load, wind, and solar inputs. The study finds that achieving an 80% carbon-free electricity system in China by 2035 could reduce wholesale electricity costs, relative to a current policy baseline, while maintaining high levels of reliability, reducing deaths from air pollution, and increasing employment. In our 80% scenario, wind and solar generation capacity reach 3 TW and battery storage capacity reaches 0.4 TW by 2035, implying a rapid scale up in these resources that will require changes in policy targets, markets and regulation, and land use policies.
