Modeling the Differences between Ultra-Rapid and Final Orbit Products of GPS Satellites Using Machine-Learning Approaches

Abstract

The International GNSS Service analysis centers provide orbit products of GPS satellites with weekly, daily, and sub-daily latency. The most frequent ultra-rapid products, which include 24 h of orbits derived from observations and 24 h of orbit predictions, are vital for real-time applications. However, the predicted part of the ultra-rapid orbits is less accurate than the estimated part and has deviations of several decimeters with respect to the final products. In this study, we investigate the potential of applying machine-learning (ML) and deep-learning (DL) algorithms to further enhance physics-based orbit predictions. We employed multiple ML/DL algorithms and comprehensively compared the performances of different models. Since the prediction errors of the physics-based propagators accumulate with time and have sequential characteristics, specific sequential modeling algorithms, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), show superiority. Our approach shows promising results with average improvements of 47% in 3D RMS within the 24-hour prediction interval of the ultra-rapid products. In the end, we applied the orbit predictions improved by LSTM to kinematic precise point positioning and demonstrated the benefits of LSTM-improved orbit predictions for positioning applications. The accuracy of the station coordinates estimated based on these products is improved by 16% on average compared to those using ultra-rapid orbit predictions.

Keywords

• precise orbit determination
• GPS
• machine learning
• deep learning
• time-series prediction