Multifractal analysis of malaria cases in India in a global warming scenario

Abstract

An effort is made to evaluate the multifractal properties of malaria cases in India from 1980 to 2014. The possible changes in these properties in a global warming scenario (during 2015–2049) are also quantified. The malaria cases for this purpose are derived from the VECTRI dynamical malaria model, which uses rainfall and temperature data of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models for the historical and SSP5–8.5 projection scenario, respectively. It is found that the generalized Hurst exponent h (q) and multifractal spectrum width Δα are strongly nonlinear decreasing functions of order q, thus confirming the multifractal nature (and heterogeneous distribution) of the malaria cases in India. The multifractal spectrum of the malaria cases exhibits right-tailed nature along with high inter-model variability, suggesting that the time series under consideration are fine scale and highly complex in nature. The multifractal spectrum width and change in singularity dimension are used to quantify the strength of multifractality for the historical and future projection scenario. It is demonstrated that the strength of multifractality of malaria cases is likely to decrease with an increase in greenhouse gas concentration, which may be happening due to a persistent increase in malaria cases in India as a result of global warming. HIGHLIGHTS Effect of climate change on malaria cases in India is quantified with the help of a dynamic malaria model.; Multifractal analysis of malaria cases is carried out in a global warming scenario.; Malaria distribution in India is complex with right-tailed multifractal spectrum.; Strength of multifractality of malaria will decrease in a warming environment.;

Keywords

• climate change
• cmip6
• malaria
• mfdfa
• multifractal analysis
• vectri