Analysis of Solar Irradiation Time Series Complexity and Predictability by Combining Kolmogorov Measures and Hamming Distance for La Reunion (France)
Dragutin T. Mihailović,
Miloud Bessafi,
Sara Marković,
Ilija Arsenić,
Slavica Malinović-Milićević,
Patrick Jeanty,
Mathieu Delsaut,
Jean-Pierre Chabriat,
Nusret Drešković,
Anja Mihailović
Affiliations
Dragutin T. Mihailović
Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Sq. 8, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
Miloud Bessafi
Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of La Réunion, Laboratoire d’Energétique, d’Electronique et Procédés, 15 Avenue René Cassin, Sainte-Clotilde, 97715 La Réunion, France
Sara Marković
Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture (DICA), University of Trieste, via Valerio 6/1, 34100 Trieste, Italy
Ilija Arsenić
Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Sq. 8, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
Slavica Malinović-Milićević
ACIMSI—Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modeling, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Sq. 7, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
Patrick Jeanty
Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of La Réunion, Laboratoire d’Energétique, d’Electronique et Procédés, 15 Avenue René Cassin, Sainte-Clotilde, 97715 La Réunion, France
Mathieu Delsaut
Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of La Réunion, Laboratoire d’Energétique, d’Electronique et Procédés, 15 Avenue René Cassin, Sainte-Clotilde, 97715 La Réunion, France
Jean-Pierre Chabriat
Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of La Réunion, Laboratoire d’Energétique, d’Electronique et Procédés, 15 Avenue René Cassin, Sainte-Clotilde, 97715 La Réunion, France
Nusret Drešković
Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, University of Sarajevo, Zmaj from Bosnia 33–35, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Anja Mihailović
ACIMSI—Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modeling, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Sq. 7, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia
Analysis of daily solar irradiation variability and predictability in space and time is important for energy resources planning, development, and management. The natural variability of solar irradiation is being complicated by atmospheric conditions (in particular cloudiness) and orography, which introduce additional complexity into the phenomenological records. To address this question for daily solar irradiation data recorded during the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 at 11 stations measuring solar irradiance on La Reunion French tropical Indian Ocean Island, we use a set of novel quantitative tools: Kolmogorov complexity (KC) with its derivative associated measures and Hamming distance (HAM) and their combination to assess complexity and corresponding predictability. We find that all half-day (from sunrise to sunset) solar irradiation series exhibit high complexity. However, all of them can be classified into three groups strongly influenced by trade winds that circulate in a “flow around” regime: the windward side (trade winds slow down), the leeward side (diurnal thermally-induced circulations dominate) and the coast parallel to trade winds (winds are accelerated due to Venturi effect). We introduce Kolmogorov time (KT) that quantifies the time span beyond which randomness significantly influences predictability.
