Risk Factors in Various Climates of Wheat Production in Western Iran: Experts’ Opinions

Abstract

Agriculture is the origin of existence and survival in any society. However, this sector is always associated with risk and uncertainty, and farmers are faced with many challenges. Therefore, the main aim of this research was to explore the (production) risk factors of irrigated wheat production systems among farmers in Kermanshah province, Iran. The exploratory nature of this study on the one hand and the need for expert judgment on the other hand necessitated a Delphi research design. Thus, this study utilized a three-round Delphi technique. The population comprised of 10 subject-matter experts (SME) and 32 agricultural extension experts in two climates (warm and semi-arid and cold and moderate) in seven counties in Kermanshah province. A purposeful (complete) sample of 42 experts in the agricultural field participated in this study. Data were collected using a questionnaire designed on the basis of the Delphi technique. The findings indicated that, after three rounds of Delphi technique, the panel members reached a consensus on 75 factors which were categorized into biological, natural, managerial, and technological-structural groups for production risk. The results of this research provide useful insights for researchers, extension agents, and farmers.

Keywords

• climate change
• production risk
• agricultural extension
• irrigated wheat
• Delphi technique