Viability of Sea Fan Populations Impacted by Disease: Recruitment versus Incidence

Abstract

Diseases are a threat to the viability of an increasing number of coral populations. In this study we analyze the effect of infection and recruitment rate on the viability and structure of sea fan (Gorgonia ventalina) populations using a size-based matrix model parameterized with data from field studies. The model predicts that the viability of sea fan populations is strongly influenced by disease incidence and recruitment. Under high recruitment rate, the disease incidence threshold for population viability is 0.12/yr. However, populations with no or low incidence may also go locally extinct given persistent low recruitment. The model also predicts an effect of recruitment on disease prevalence. Everything else being equal, sites with low recruitment will exhibit higher disease prevalence than ones with high recruitment, particularly in medium and large colonies. Elasticity analysis reveals that changes in colony survivorship are likely to have the strongest effect on population growth rate, particularly given low recruitment. We conclude that under current levels of incidence sea fan populations in the Caribbean are not at risk. However, future epizootics are likely to produce local extinctions particularly if coinciding spatially or temporally with low recruitment.