PLoS ONE (Jan 2021)

An operationally implementable model for predicting the effects of an infectious disease on a comprehensive regional healthcare system.

  • Daniel Chertok,
  • Chad Konchak,
  • Nirav Shah,
  • Kamaljit Singh,
  • Loretta Au,
  • Jared Hammernik,
  • Brian Murray,
  • Anthony Solomonides,
  • Ernest Wang,
  • Lakshmi Halasyamani

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258710
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 16, no. 10
p. e0258710

Abstract

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An operationally implementable predictive model has been developed to forecast the number of COVID-19 infections in the patient population, hospital floor and ICU censuses, ventilator and related supply chain demand. The model is intended for clinical, operational, financial and supply chain leaders and executives of a comprehensive healthcare system responsible for making decisions that depend on epidemiological contingencies. This paper describes the model that was implemented at NorthShore University HealthSystem and is applicable to any communicable disease whose risk of reinfection for the duration of the pandemic is negligible.