Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?

Abstract

Several studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have differential effects on different subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051−2065 and 2085−2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991−2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051−2065 and 2085−2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051−2065 and 2085−2099, respectively, compared to 1991−2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group <65 years, at 2.22% vs. 1.38%, for 2085−2099. In PMA, only people aged 65+ years showed significant temperature-related burden of deaths that can be attributable to hot temperatures. The heat-related excess deaths increased from 0.23% for 2051−2065 to 1.37% for 2085−2099, compared to the historical period.

Keywords

• climate change
• extreme temperatures
• distributed lag non-linear model (dlnm)
• mortality
• elderly
• projections
• wrf model
• portugal