The development trend of influenza in China from 2010 to 2019

Abstract

In this study, we quantify and evaluate the transmission capacity of different types of influenza, and evaluate the flu vaccination effect. Taking the influenza cases reported by the National Influenza Center of China from 2010 to 2019 as the research object (http://www.chinaivdc.cn/cnic), we established the SEIABR model to calculate the influenza infection rate and R0 for each year from 2010 to 2019, and calculate the influenza A and B influenza infection rates. We further added vaccination measures to the SEIABR model, and analysis the impact of different vaccination rates on the spread of influenza. We find that the range of β(infection rate) is $$6.03 \times {10^{ - 10}}$$ to $$9.66 \times {10^{ - 10}}$$, and the average is $$\left({7.95 \pm 1.27} \right) \times {10^{ - 10}}$$, the range of R0 is .98 to 1.47, and the average is 1.21. Simulation result suggest that vaccine coverage needed to reach 60%-80% to control the spread of influenza virus in China when the vaccine effectiveness was 20%-40%. When the vaccine effectiveness is 40%-60%, vaccine coverage needs to reach 40%-60% to control the spread of influenza virus in China. In China, the infection rate of influenza A is higher than influenza B, to better control the spread of the flu virus, we suggest that we also need to increase the number of people vaccinated or improve the efficiency of vaccines(the current vaccination coverage is probably less than 20%).

Keywords

• influenza
• vaccine
• public health
• compartmental model
• epidemiology