The impact of future climate and land use/cover change on water resources in the Ndembera watershed and their mitigation and adaptation strategies

Abstract

Abstract Background Land use/cover and climate changes have a great influence on the hydrological processes in the watershed. The impacts of land use/cover and climate change are set to increase in the future due to the increased clearance of virgin forest lands for agriculture and the rise of global warming. The way in which the future climate will interact with the land use changes and affect the water balance in the watersheds requires more attention. This study was carried out in the Ndembera river watershed in Usangu basin, Tanzania, whereby the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to (i) assess the impact of near future (2010–2039) climate and 2013–2020 land use/cover change on the water balance and streamflow and (ii) evaluate the effectiveness of four land and water management practices as the mitigation and adaptation strategies for the impacts of climate and land use/cover changes. The 2020 land use/cover was predicted using Markov Chain and Cellular Automata models based on 2006 and 2013 land use/covers. The near-future climate scenario was generated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 General Circulation Models. Results During the period from 2013 to 2020, the agricultural land and evergreen forests will increase by nearly 10 and 7%, respectively. Mixed forests will decrease by 12%. Such land use/cover changes will decrease the total water yield by nearly 13% while increasing evapotranspiration and surface runoff by approximately 8 and 18%, respectively. This moisture balance changes will be aggravated by warmer near-future mean annual temperatures (1.1 °C) and wetter conditions (3.4 mm/year) than in the baseline period (1980–2009). The warmer future climate will increase evapotranspiration and decrease water yield by approximately 35 and 8%, respectively. The management practices such as filter strips can reduce the annual evapotranspiration by 6%, and increase stream-flow by 38% in February. Conclusion The future land use/cover changes will interact with the near-future warmer temperatures and reduce water availability in the Ndembera watershed. Land and water management practices have great potential to mitigate the impacts of future climate and land use/cover changes on water resource, thus increasing its availability.

Keywords

• Water balance
• Soil and Water Assessment Tool
• Climate change
• Land and water management practices
• Usangu catchment
• Tanzania