A novel deep learning framework with a COVID-19 adjustment for electricity demand forecasting

Abstract

Electricity demand forecasting is crucial for practical power system management. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the electricity demand system deviated from normal system, which has detrimental bias effect in future forecasts. To overcome this problem, we propose a deep learning framework with a COVID-19 adjustment for electricity demand forecasting. More specifically, we first designed COVID-19 related variables and applied a multiple linear regression model. After eliminating the impact of COVID-19, we employed an efficient deep learning algorithm, long short-term memory multiseasonal net deseasonalized approach, to model residuals from the linear model aforementioned. Finally, we demonstrated the merits of the proposed framework using the electricity demand in Taixing, Jiangsu, China, from May 13, 2018 to August 2, 2021.

Keywords

• Time series modeling
• Pandemic
• Deep learning
• Load forecasting