Short-term Runoff Forecasting based on Hydrological Factors at Nanchang Section of Ganjiang River, China

Abstract

With the change of global climate and underlying surface characteristics, and increasing human activities, hydro-meteorological factors such as precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. Etc., are directly affected, therefore the assumption of stationarity may no longer exist. In a changing environment, the conventional runoff forecasting methods become invalid, which brings challenges to accurate hydrometeorological forecast. A hydrological model based on the changing environment was employed to forecast the runoff at Nanchang Section of Ganjiang River in this paper, and the rationality and validity of the built model were verified. The results shows that the built hydrological model has high accuracy in the short-term runoff forecasting, and better forecasting effect has been obtained after the parameters calibration and the real-time correction of the predicted runoffs, which can provide the strong support for the scientific water resources operation decision and also provide the boundary conditions of water level and water quality for the hydrodynamic and water-quality simulation at the Nanchang Section of the Ganjiang River.