Modeling of high uncertainty photovoltaic generation in quasi dynamic power flow on distribution systems: A case study in Java Island, Indonesia

Abstract

Integrating uncertainties associated with photovoltaic (PV) generation is an important aspect used to ensure the planning and operation of power distribution systems. Therefore, this research proposed an uncertainty model for PV generation by combining the methods of change point detection, cyclic k-means clustering (KMC), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with freedman diaconis estimator (FDE), and KMC with soft-dynamic time warping (DTW). Firstly, a seasonal split was performed using change point detection techniques and cyclic KMC to identify shifts in global horizontal irradiance (GHI) points. Secondly, the uncertainty of the GHI was generated using MCS for each season and the FDE method to optimize the number of bins of the data distribution. Finally, the PV generation curve from MCS was simplified through KMC with the soft-DTW metric, which facilitated a more straightforward representation of a PV profile. The impact of PV profile integration on quasi-dynamic power flow was tested on an IEEE 33 Bus system. The voltage profile on the feeder significantly impacted the PV integration, specifically during hours when high PV power is produced. For instance, at 11:00 a.m., voltage values on buses 18, 17, and 33 increased from 0.933, 0.934, and 0.935, respectively, to 0.982, 0.980, and 0.972. Similarly, with the value of power losses, the greater the PV power profile produced at a certain hour, the smaller the losses generated. The experimental results of the uncertainties PV model proposed in this research indicated that changes in electrical parameters change over time according to the input PV power profile produced.

Keywords

• Uncertainty of photovoltaic
• Change point detection
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Cyclic k-means clustering
• Quasi-dynamic power flow