Hemispheric asymmetric response of tropical cyclones to CO2 emission reduction

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural hazards for coastal regions, and their response to human activities has broad socio-economic relevance. So far, how TC responds to climate change mitigation remains unknown, complicating the design of adaptation policies. Using net-zero and negative carbon emission experiments, we reveal a robust hemisphere-asymmetric hysteretic TC response to CO2 reduction. During the decarbonization phase, the Northern Hemisphere TC frequency continues to decrease for several more decades, while the Southern Hemisphere oceans abruptly shifts to a stormier state, with the timescales depending on mitigation details. Such systematic changes are largely attributed to the planetary-scale reorganization of vertical wind shear and midlevel upward motion associated with the hysteretic southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, underpinned by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and El Niño-like mean state changes. The hemispheric contrast in TC response suggests promising benefits for most of the world’s population from human action to mitigate greenhouse gas warming, but it may also exacerbate regional socioeconomic disparities, for example by putting more pressure on small open-ocean island states in the Southern Hemisphere to adapt to TC risks.