Entre la identidad y la ideología: factores de riesgo de violencia electoral para las candidaturas a las elecciones legislativas del 2022 en Colombia

Abstract

Objective/context: This article identifies the profiles of candidates who are more likely to report acts of electoral violence during the 2022 legislative elections. To this end, we define the concept of electoral violence, review national and international literature on the phenomenon, and identify two relevant aspects as risk factors. First, we look at identity-related characteristics such as age, sex, and ethnic background of the candidates. Second, we explore characteristics related to their political standing, for example, identifying as a left-wing candidate. Methodology: To conduct the analysis, we used a survey of 512 candidates for legislative elections designed by the authors and implemented in collaboration with the Electoral Observation Mission (MOE). With this data, we performed linear regression models to identify the characteristics of candidates associated with different forms of electoral violence reported during the campaign. Conclusions: We found that identity factors, particularly being a young candidate, a woman, and from an area affected by the armed conflict, are associated with reporting acts of electoral violence. Surprisingly, we did not find a statistically significant association with candidates who identified themselves as left-wing, as claimed by national and international literature on the subject. This finding is preliminary because the sample has an underrepresentation of candidates from ideological extremes; therefore, this result should be explored more deeply in future research. Originality: Although studies on electoral violence are abundant, few focus on the candidates. This is the first time in Colombia that a survey has been conducted with candidates that investigates forms of electoral violence that go beyond physical violence, such as psychological, economic, and sexual violence.

Keywords

• elections
• gender
• electoral violence
• ethnic minorities
• political participation
• political violence