Malaria Elimination Initiative, The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, United States; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, United States
Emily Dantzer
Malaria Elimination Initiative, The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, United States
Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, United States
Bouasy Hongvanthong
Center for Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology, Ministry of Health, Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic
Hugh JW Sturrock
Malaria Elimination Initiative, The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, United States; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, United States
Adam Bennett
Malaria Elimination Initiative, The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, United States; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, United States
As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination efforts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases confirmed malaria case incidence in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identified strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) than for Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). These findings highlight the influence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS.
