PM2.5 emission from the coal combustion in the Polish residential sector. State and outlooks

Abstract

The paper presents obtaining the average PM2.5 emission factor from coal combustion in the residential sector using (statistical) Monte Carlo simulation combined with the model proposed by [Lorenz 1999] and [Radović 1997], also applied by [Stala–Szlugaj 2011]. According to the results of laboratory experiments [Czaplicka et al. 2019; Shen 2014], the estimated amount of PM2.5 released into the air from the individually heated residential sector might be underestimated. Simulated emission factor is used for estimation of the PM2.5 emission trend for the period 1990–2018 and compared with the data provided by the official Polish emission inventory [NCEM 2020]. Due to significant changes in officially applied data (share of coal consumption and emission factor) [MCAE 2023], and to ensure the data consistency with projected fuel demand [Stala–Szlugaj 2017], and PM2.5 emissions [MSA 2019], the older data is used [NCEM 2020] in the paper. In the near future, the next substantial changes in projected fuel use are expected due to the ongoing works on the update of the National Energy and Climate Plan.

Keywords

• air emissions
• pm2.5
• emission factors
• uncertainty
• projections