Mid-term outlook on Croatian cereals market – partial equilibrium model approach

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to simulate the future development of the Croatian cereals market using the method of AGEMEMOD partial equilibrium model. The results present the historical (2010-2016) and projected development (2016-2030) of the production and trade in wheat, corn, barley, oats and rye markets. Simulation results show an increase in productivity per hectare and surface stability with the exception of individual culture. Wheat production in the projection period, same as corn, recorded a production increase and change in the trade balance. Croatia remains a net exporter of corn and wheat. For barley, as a third important cereal, the model results show a constant level of production by 2030, but also a positive foreign trade balance til the end of the projection period. Oats and rye, as less significant grains, still retain the status of imported products at the Croatian market. Domestic prices follow the EU prices trends, but will generally remain at a lower level than the average EU price. Despite the price competitiveness in the EU market, the domestic cereal sector is facing problems. In the domestic cereal sector there is a trend of relatively cheap grain export on common market, with expensive final products and processed products import.

Keywords

• cereals
• croatia
• model
• partial equilibrium
• projections