Risk Management and Healthcare Policy (Dec 2020)
A Policy Category Analysis Model for Tourism Promotion in China During the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Data Mining and Binary Regression
Abstract
Tinggui Chen,1 Lijuan Peng,1 Xiaohua Yin,1 Bailu Jing,2 Jianjun Yang,3 Guodong Cong,4 Gongfa Li5 1School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, People’s Republic of China; 2School of Management and E-Business, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Computer Science and Information Systems, University of North Georgia, Oakwood, GA 30566, USA; 4School of Tourism and Urban-Rural Planning, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, People’s Republic of China; 5Hubei Key Laboratory of Mechanical Transmission and Manufacturing Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430081, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Guodong Cong Email [email protected] and Aim: At the end of 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 had a significant impact on China’s tourism industry, which was almost at a standstill in the short-term. After reaching the preliminarily stable state, the government and the scenic area management department implemented a series of incentive policies in order to speed up the recovery of the tourism industry. Therefore, analyzing all sorts of social effects after policy implementation is of guiding significance for the government and the scenic areas.Methods: Targeted as the social effect with the implementation of tourism promotion policy during the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper briefly analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the national cultural and tourism industry and selects several representative types of tourism policies, crawls the comment data of Weibo users, analyzes users’ perception and emotional preference to the policy, and thus mines the social effect of various policies. Subsequently, by identifying the social effects of various policies as dependent variables, a binary logistic regression model is constructed to obtain the best combination of tourism promotion policies and promote the rapid revitalization of the cultural and tourism industry.Results: The results show that from the single policy, the social effect of the “safety” policy is the best. From the perspective of combination policies, the simultaneous release of “safety” policies and “economy” policies have the greatest social impact, which can dramatically accelerate the recovery of the cultural and tourism industry. Finally, this paper proposes suggestions for policy formulation to improve the ability of the cultural tourism industry to cope with crisis events.Conclusion: These results explain the perceived effects of the public on the government policies and can be used to judge whether the policies have been released in place. Based on the above results, corresponding suggestions are proposed as follows: 1) the combination of economic policies and security policies can achieve better results; and 2) the role of “opinion leaders” can be played to improve the perceived effect of policies.Keywords: online comments, social effects, combination optimization, data mining, binary logistic regression, COVID-19
