Forecasting tropical cyclone coastal and marine hazards and impacts

Abstract

The report highlights the significant progress over various regions with respect to understanding of coastal hazards, numerical modeling techniques and the generation & dissemination of coastal hazard warnings and products. The developments over various regions in the globe during 2014–18 have been discussed in this report as presented during 10th Session of International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-X) at Bali, Indonesia. More specifically, various regions have started to confront the uncertainty that cannot be removed from TC analyses and forecasts and further communicate those hazards within the context of risk [probabilistic] based information. Progress also includes impact-based forecasts such as communicating coastal inundation information relative to total water level instead of storm surge, specifically (i.e., anomaly from astronomical tide and waves). Lastly, updates to model grid configuration, model resolution, and coupled dynamical systems continue to resolve the costal hazards more effectively. Those approaches have likely helped reduce loss of life relative to historical standards. However, regions agree that the generation and dissemination of coastal hazard information still need to be improved in view of growing population along the coast and thus increased exposure of life to coastal hazard.

Keywords

• Coastal inundation
• Storm surge
• Probabilistic forecast