Demand-Side Electricity Load Forecasting Based on Time-Series Decomposition Combined with Kernel Extreme Learning Machine Improved by Sparrow Algorithm

Abstract

With the rapid development of new power systems, power usage stations are becoming more diverse and complex. Fine-grained management of demand-side power load has become increasingly crucial. To address the accurate load forecasting needs for various demand-side power consumption types and provide data support for load management in diverse stations, this study proposes a load sequence noise reduction method. Initially, wavelet noise reduction is performed on the multiple types of load sequences collected by the power system. Subsequently, the northern goshawk optimization is employed to optimize the parameters of variational mode decomposition, ensuring the selection of the most suitable modal decomposition parameters for different load sequences. Next, the SSA–KELM model is employed to independently predict each sub-modal component. The predicted values for each sub-modal component are then aggregated to yield short-term load prediction results. The proposed load forecasting method has been verified using actual data collected from various types of power terminals. A comparison with popular load forecasting methods demonstrates the proposed method’s higher prediction accuracy and versatility. The average prediction results of load data in industrial stations can reach RMSE = 0.0098, MAE = 0.0078, MAPE = 1.3897%, and R2 = 0.9949. This method can be effectively applied to short-term load forecasting in multiple types of power stations, providing a reliable basis for accurate demand-side power load management and decision-making.

Keywords

• load forecasting
• variational mode decomposition
• northern goshawk optimization algorithm
• improved kernel extreme learning machine
• power system load management