Excess pneumonia and influenza mortality attributable to seasonal influenza in subtropical Shanghai, China

Abstract

Abstract Background Disease burden attributable to influenza is substantial in subtropical regions. Our study aims to estimate excess pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality associated with influenza by subtypes/lineages in Shanghai, China, 2010–2015. Methods Quasi-Poisson regression models were fitted to weekly numbers of deaths from causes coded as P&I for Shanghai general and registered population. Three proxies for influenza activity were respectively used as an explanatory variable. Long-term trend, seasonal trend and absolute humidity were adjusted for as confounding factors. The outcome measurements of excess P&I mortality associated with influenza subtypes/lineages were derived by subtracting the baseline mortality from fitted mortality. Results Excess P&I mortality associated with influenza were 0.22, 0.30, and 0.23 per 100,000 population for three different proxies in Shanghai general population, lower than those in registered population (0.34, 0.48, and 0.36 per 100,000 population). Influenza B (Victoria) lineage did not contribute to excess P&I mortality (P = 0.206) while influenza B (Yamagata) lineage did (P = 0.044). Influenza-associated P&I mortality was high in the elderly population. Conclusions Seasonal influenza A virus had a higher P&I mortality than influenza B virus, while B (Yamagata) lineage is the dominant lineage attributable to P&I mortality.

Keywords

• Influenza
• Excess mortality
• Quasi-Poisson modelm
• Influenza-like illness