Efficient parameter generation for constrained models using MCMC

Abstract

Abstract Mathematical models of complex systems rely on parameter values to produce a desired behavior. As mathematical and computational models increase in complexity, it becomes correspondingly difficult to find parameter values that satisfy system constraints. We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for the problem of constrained model parameter generation by designing a Markov chain that efficiently explores a model’s parameter space. We demonstrate the use of our proposed methodology to analyze responses of a newly constructed bistability-constrained model of protein phosphorylation to perturbations in the underlying protein network. Our results suggest that parameter generation for constrained models using MCMC provides powerful tools for modeling-aided analysis of complex natural processes.