Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Surveillance of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: An Ecological Study

Abstract

The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the notification of new VL cases in Brazil in 2020. It is an ecological and time-series study (2015–2020) with spatial analysis techniques, whose units of analysis were the 5570 Brazilian municipalities. The study population consisted of all new cases of VL recorded between 2015 and 2020. The P-score was calculated to estimate the percentage variation in new VL cases. Global and local univariate Moran’s Indices and retrospective space–time scan statistics were used in spatial and space–time analyses, respectively. It was expected that there would be 3627 new cases of VL in Brazil in 2020, but 1932 cases were reported (−46.73%). All Brazilian regions presented a negative percentage variation in the registration of new VL cases, with the Southeast (−54.70%), North (−49.97%), and Northeast (−44.22%) standing out. There was spatial dependence of the disease nationwide in both periods, before and during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a significant reduction in the incidence of new VL cases in Brazil during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings reinforce the need for better preparedness of the health system, especially in situations of new epidemics.

Keywords

• spatial analysis
• spatiotemporal analysis
• COVID-19
• time series study
• visceral leishmaniasis