Evaluation of the role of atherogenic index of plasma in the reversion from Prediabetes to normoglycemia or progression to Diabetes: a multi-center retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background Atherosclerosis is closely linked with glucose metabolism. We aimed to investigate the role of the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) in the reversal of prediabetes to normal blood glucose levels or its progression to diabetes. Methods This multi-center retrospective cohort study included 15,421 prediabetic participants from 32 regions across 11 cities in China, under the aegis of the Rich Healthcare Group’s affiliated medical examination institutions. Throughout the follow-up period, we monitored changes in the glycemic status of these participants, including reversal to normal fasting glucose (NFG), persistence in the prediabetic state, or progression to diabetes. Segmented regression, stratified analysis, and restricted cubic spline (RCS) were performed based on the multivariable Cox regression model to evaluate the association between AIP and the reversal of prediabetes to NFG or progression to diabetes. Results During a median follow-up period of 2.9 years, we recorded 6,481 individuals (42.03%) reverting from prediabetes to NFG, and 2,424 individuals (15.72%) progressing to diabetes. After adjusting for confounders, AIP showed a positive correlation with the progression from prediabetes to diabetes [(Hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI):1.24–1.64)] and a negative correlation with the reversion from prediabetes to NFG (HR 0.89, 95%CI:0.81–0.98); further RCS demonstrated a nonlinear relationship between AIP and the reversion from prediabetes to NFG/progression to diabetes, identifying a turning point of 0.04 for reversion to NFG and 0.17 for progression to diabetes. In addition, we observed significant differences in the association between AIP and reversion from prediabetes to NFG/progression to diabetes across age subgroups, specifically indicating that the risk associated with AIP for progression from prediabetes to diabetes was relatively higher in younger populations; likewise, a younger age within the adult group favored the reversion from prediabetes to NFG in relation to AIP. Conclusion Our study, for the first time, reveals a negative correlation between AIP and the reversion from prediabetes to normoglycemia and validates the crucial role of AIP in the risk assessment of prediabetes progression. Based on threshold analysis, therapeutically, keeping the AIP below 0.04 was of paramount importance for individuals with prediabetes aiming for reversion to NFG; preventatively, maintaining AIP below 0.17 was vital to reduce the risk of diabetes onset for those with prediabetes.