Forecasting operational costs of technical objects based on the example of railbuses

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to present the method for forecasting one of the three categories of exploitation costs, i.e., operational costs. The article analyses the available subject literature discussing the methods of measuring operational costs used in the LCC analysis. The presented method for forecasting operational costs of technical objects applies econometric modelling, probability distributions and certain elements of descriptive and mathematical statistics. The statistical data analysis was performed using the functions and commands available in Microsoft Excel. Weibull++ application was also used for constructing probability distributions for random variables and verifying hypotheses. The method was tested on eight single-mode railbuses, operated by one of the regional railway companies providing passenger transport. An ex-post relative forecast error was used to measure the level of accuracy of the operational cost forecast. The analysis of the compliance between forecasted cost value and the actual costs showed extensive convergence as evidenced by the level of estimated relative errors. In forecasting the operational costs of railbuses, the average error was approx. 2.9%. The presented method can, therefore, constitute the basis for the estimation of both operational costs and exploitation costs, which represent an important cost component considered when assessing the profitability of purchasing one of the several competing technical objects offered by the industry.

Keywords

• forecasting
• operational costs
• analysis of the life-cycle cost (lcc)