Verification of multiresolution model forecasts of heavy rainfall events from 23 to 26 August 2017 over Nigeria

Abstract

Abstract The study uses numerical weather prediction models to predict the occurrence of heavy convective rainfall associated with the passage of the African Easterly Wave (AEW) during the period 23–26 August 2017 over Nigeria. Fraction skill score (FSS) and method for object‐based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) verification techniques were applied to verify how well the models predict the high‐impact event and to demonstrate how these tools can support operational forecasting. Ensemble model forecasts at a convective scale from UK Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and a one‐way nested weather research and forecasting (WRF) model were compared with the integrated multisatellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement (IMERG GPM). The purpose is to examine skills of improved model resolution and ensemble in reproducing rainfall forecasts on useful scales and how the skill varies with spatial scale. WRF 2 and 6 km model forecasts show comparable skill at smaller grid scales. The skill of MetUM improves dramatically when the verification statistics are applied to the ensemble mean of the binary fields of the individual member forecast. The object‐based analysis reveals a similar structure as observed, although displaced eastwards. Most improvement occurred for heavier rainfall events associated with the passage of the AEW. WRF 6 km compares reasonably well with WRF 2 km in terms of shape and structure of rainfall underscoring the ability of the model to reasonably represent convection at 6 km horizontal resolution. The ensemble members in MetUM explicitly reproduce convection at 4 km resolution but are displaced at about 166 km behind observed rainfall.

Keywords

• African Easterly Wave
• ensemble forecasts
• forecasting
• fraction skill score
• extreme rainfall
• extremes