Building a mathematical model for assessing the hazard of emergency situations and the formation of types of causes for rolling stock derailments

Abstract

The technique provides an analytical criterion for selecting the one set of numerical data most involved in an emergency out of several ones which are the relative deviations of the main factors from the critical ones in transport. The criterion is based on finding the theoretical left boundary of the interval of each set of deviations. The sets under study are reduced to normal distribution laws using a well-known method. The analysis uses basic numerical characteristics similar to those used in probability theory and mathematical statistics. The proposed method is based on finding the central theoretical moments up to the third order inclusive. Explanatory demonstration examples are provided.