Enerjide Dışa Bağımlılık Sorunu: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz(Enerjide Dışa Bağımlılık Sorunu: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz)

Abstract

As an energy source, fossil fuel has been one of the most important elements of production since the Industrial Revolution. However, it is seen that fossil fuels are not evenly distributed in every part of the world. While this situation has made some countries energy exporters, countries that do not have fossil fuel resources have become importers. If a country wants to increase the amount of production and raise the level of social welfare, it must supply energy needs from external sources. This situation has led to the development of dependency relations in the energy sector. Following the Ukraine-Russia War that started in the first months of 2022, energy dependency has been recognized as a risk factor for energy supply security. Therefore, the European Union has implemented a new strategy to reduce energy dependency, such as the transition to renewable energy and diversification of energy-importing countries. As a country heavily dependent on energy imports, Turkey also needs to take steps to reduce its energy dependence. The results obtained from the empirical analysis conducted in this study support this conclusion. As a result of the Johansen cointegration test conducted within the scope of the analysis, there is a positive relationship between primary energy supply and fossil fuel consumption and energy dependence in the short and long run for the period 1990-2020 in Turkey. There is a negative relationship between energy efficiency and energy dependence. Contrary to expectations, there is a negative relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and energy dependence. In this model, no relationship could be established between energy dependence and renewable energy, which is the last variable in the analysis.

Keywords

• energy dependency
• energy efficiency
• renewable energy
• primary energy supply
• johansen cointegration test