Nomogram forecasting 3‐, 5‐, and 8‐year overall survival and cancer‐specific survival of gingival squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

Abstract No nomogram models addressing the personalized prognosis evaluation of patients with gingival squamous cell carcinoma (GSCC) have been documented. We sought to establish nomograms to forecast overall survival (OS) and cancer‐specific survival (CSS) of patients with GSCC. We collected the detailed clinicopathological information of 2505 patients with GSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. Afterward, we divided the 2505 cases into a modeling group (n = 1253) and an external validation cohort (n = 1252) via random split‐sample method. We developed the nomograms on the basis of the Kaplan‐Meier and multivariate Cox survival analysis of the modeling group and then split the modeling cohort into two parts based on cut‐off values: high‐ and low‐risk cohorts. An improved survival was shown in the low‐risk group compared to their counterpart, with a significant difference after the log‐rank test. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated via concordance‐index (C‐index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration curves. All the C‐indexes and AUCs were greater than 0.7, showing high accuracy. Moreover, the calibrations showed that the actual observations were close to the 45° perfect reference line. In conclusion, we successfully developed two nomograms to provide individualized, patient‐specific estimates of OS and CSS available for risk‐stratification.

Keywords

• calibration curve
• gingival squamous cell carcinoma
• nomogram
• survival analysis