Research on medium- and long-term electricity demand forecasting under climate change

Abstract

Global warming and frequent extreme heat wave events have led to changes in people’s energy consumption habits, which in turn has a significant impact on electricity consumption. Accurate forecasts of electricity consumption can provide scientific support for the capability improvement of power supply service. To meet the needs of long-term power system planning of Beijing, a variety of empirical models to estimate the temperature–power consumption response function in Beijing are adopted to predict the future power consumption under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The main results are summarized as follows: (1) With different models for measurement, the relationship between the temperature and power consumption in Beijing present a U-shaped curve. Taking the linear model as an example, a 1 degree-day increase in CDD will lead to a 0.053 million kWh growth in Beijing’s power consumption, while a 1 degree-day increase in HDD will lead to a rise of 0.09 million kWh in Beijing’s electricity consumption. (2) Beijing’s power consumption level in the future will show a rising trend with fluctuation. In 2060, the electricity consumption in Beijing will reach 219 to 290.4 billion kWh.

Keywords

• Power consumption
• Forecasting model
• Shared socioeconomic pathways